Thin power reserves looming in April
By Alena Mae S. Flores – February 24, 2023, 9:50 pm
from manilastandard.net
Power transmission operator National Grid Corp. of the Philippines on Friday warned consumers about thin power reserves in the dry months starting April.
“Thin operating margins power in excess of demand from where ancillary services power used to manage and balance the grid are taken are forecasted for this year. For the Luzon grid, these are forecasted from April to June due to the historically-high demand during the summer months,” NGCP said in a statement.
NGCP said that based on the Department of Energy’s forecast, Luzon would experience a peak demand of 13,125 megawatts towards the end of May, up by 8.35 percent from the actual peak load of 12,113 MW on May 22, 2022.
The DOE predicted that demand in the Visayas would peak in September while power consumption Mindanao would be highest in June. It expects a 16.19-percent increase in Visayas demand to 2,691 MW, and a 10.52-percent growth in Mindanao requirements to 2,395 MW.
NGCP said the base case projections show no occurrence of yellow or red alerts, but several weeks between March and April would see operating margins below the required levels on higher demand and the unavailability of some power plants.
It said it coordinates the preparation and submission to the DOE of an annual Grid Operating and Maintenance Program—a consolidated preventive maintenance schedule of power plants, with consideration for the needed supply to meet the projected demand.
“NGCP coordinates with the generation and distribution sectors to optimize and rationalize maintenance schedules to ensure sufficiency, at least on paper, of power supply throughout the year,” the company said.
The DOE approved the 2023 GOMP on Dec. 27, 2022. It asked power generation companies not to schedule any maintenance shutdown during the summer months.
NGCP said, however, it has no control over the power plants’ unplanned shutdowns.
“Unplanned shutdowns, which are outside of the GOMP, may still have a significant impact on the supply-demand profile if, as in the past years, several power plants simultaneously shut down outside of its schedule,” NGCP said.
NGCP issues a yellow alert when the operating margin is insufficient to meet the transmission grid’s regulating and contingency requirement, which is at 668 MW each.
It issues the red alert status when supplies are insufficient to meet consumer demand and the transmission grid’s regulating requirement.
“While the GOMP is formulated to ensure adequacy of supply, especially during the critical months, there are instances of forced or unplanned outages of plants which may disrupt the normal operations of the grid and warrant the issuance of yellow or red alerts. As transmission service provider, NGCP can only give an overview of the current supply and demand situation, and endeavor to dispatch any and all available grid resources. It cannot intervene on matters concerning power generation,”said NGCP.
NGCP said to prevent possible power shortages, policymakers should immediately explore demand-side management strategies to mitigate any possible supply issues in the dry months.
NGCP operates the country’s transmission network, with about 21,7200 circuit kilometers of lines, 20,000 transmission towers and 140 substations.
