Semirara chief paints bleak outlook for energy supply

BY LENIE LECTURA – DECEMBER 5, 2022
from Business Mirror

Semirara Mining & Power Corp. (SMPC) Chairman Isidro Consunji said the country’s power situation next year is going to be “more challenging than before” because of tight supply amid an improvement in the country’s economy.

“2023 is the most challenging, more than 2024. The government will have to prop up the economy so that means increase in demand, and there’s almost a 1:1 correlation in GDP growth and energy demand,” said Consunji.

He also noted that electricity prices are higher during June and July than higher in the hot dry season, when demand as its peak.

“Actually, we monitor the prices. The highest price is (recorded) not in April to May but in June and July. These are the months when hydro is almost used up and when most of the power plants would conduct their maintenance shutdown since they are prohibited to shut down during summer,” said Consunji.

Earlier, the Department of Energy (DOE) said it expects 17 yellow and three red alert warnings in May and June next year, mainly on account of thin power reserves in the Luzon grid.

Based on the DOE’s Luzon power outlook for 2023, with forced outage scenario and exclusion of Ilijan power plant, the agency’s simulation showed the occurrence of 17 yellow alerts and three red alerts in 2023. The red alerts are seen to occur in May and June, as capacity will fall below the operational margin given lack of reserves in the grid.

“This usually falls in May and June because hydro plants in Luzon are unable to deliver at this particular point. So, these are the ones we are attending to with sense of urgency and which is to plan for how to bridge this particular gap,” said DOE Secretary Raphael Lotilla.

“There is the hope that some natural gas facilities can come on stream before this, but even without this we have to plan for other contingency.”