THE Department of Energy (DOE) is revising the country’s projected power demand and supply for the year as economic activity slowed down during the pandemic.
DOE Assistant Secretary Redentor Delola said this year’s projected electricity demand would likely not be reached. Initial indications, he said, point to retaining the 2019 power demand forecast.
“For Luzon, Visayas and Mindano, it seems the 2020 projections can’t be reached. We’re likely just at the 2019 levels towards the end of the year. With zero economic growth, we expect little to no growth also for power demand,” he said in a text message in mixed English and Filipino on Wednesday.
Last year’s actual peak demand for Luzon reached 11,344 megawatts on June 21. Demand for power in Visayas reached 2,224MW on May 16, 2019. For Mindanao, it reached 2,013MW on May 8, 2019.
For 2020, DOE’s demand forecast for Luzon will reach 12,285MW in May; 2,419MW in May for Visayas; and 2,278MW in December for Mindanao.
“Actually, we are still lower than 2019 year-to-date. So, as we gradually transition to the new normal, demand will slowly begin to increase. But it will not be as aggressive as originally projected,” Delola said.
The figures would be updated soon as the agency may have to present its revised forecast to the Joint Congressional Energy Commission (JCEC). Meantime, the DOE awaits actual data from the distribution utilities (DUs) after they suspended their meter reading activities.
“These are just initial updated projections based on economic projections. This may be updated once more data, specifically load side, becomes available. The DUs need to resubmit their Distribution Development Plans, taking into consideration the impact of Covid-19,” he said.
During the implementation of the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ), Delola said demand dropped by 30 percent.
“What happened during the pandemic was that residential consumption in Luzon went up. But it didn’t compensate for the decline from the industrial and commercial sectors, so we saw as low as a 30-percent plunge in demand,” said Delola, adding that demand in the residential sector will continue to be higher than projections.
“In Mindanao and Visayas, although demand also fell, it wasn’t as deep compared to Luzon in terms of percentage. Because in Visayas and Mindanao, it’s mostly residential that drives the share,” said Delola.
Energy Secretary Alfonso Cusi said his office is assisting power generation companies in securing permits and necessary IDs so that their work is unhampered.
“We have to ensure that power supply is sufficient. Under the post-quarantine scenario, demand will rise all around. They will try to start their facilities and that will require a lot of power in Luzon.
“We have a supply of around 11,000MW. Our demand is already at 9,000MW. We want to make sure that we have enough supply. We are thankful that Gencos are working to make sure that they will be able to meet the demand for power,” Cusi said.
