Electricity demand in Luzon, Visayas to breach 12,000MW

By Lenie Lectura -April 12, 2021
from Business Mirror

Electricity peak demand in Luzon and Visayas is expected to hit over 12,000 megawatts (MW) in the months of April, May and June, the Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP) said.

Based on conservative forecast for the second quarter, system peak demand this month could reach 12,190MW. For May and June, demand may reach 12,400MW and 12,611MW, respectively.

Of which, Luzon could register 10,160MW in April, 10,335MW in May and 10,511MW in June. Visayas could record a peak demand of 2,043MW in April, 2,079MW in May and 2,114MW in June.

The operator of the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) said the numbers are preliminary and could change depending if government decides to relax community quarantine restrictions.

In the first quarter of the year, system peak demand stood at 11,015MW in January, 11,485MW in February and 12,582MW in March.

Luzon’s peak demand in March was recorded on the 18th of the month at 10,487MW. The figure is still lower than last year’s March peak demand of 11,065MW.

“As portions of Luzon experienced stricter restrictions as a safety precaution to the global pandemic, the Market Operator also observed a decrease in demand following the announcement of the varying levels of community quarantines.

Furthermore, a significant drop in demand was recorded during the imposition of the Enhanced Community Quarantine, which incidentally fell on Holy Week during the last week of March and onset of April,” IEMOP said.

IEMOP said the movement in electricity demand also contributed to higher electricity spot prices.

Spot market price last month hit P4.16 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), nearly double the February level of P2.22 per kWh mainly due to an increase in unplanned generator outages and higher demand.

When major power plants encounter unplanned outages, supply plunges and demand rises. Consequently, WESM prices increase.

Among the power plants that were on shutdown include 382-megawatt (MW) Pagbilao Unit 2, the 647-MW Sual Unit 1, and the 316-MW GN Power Unit 2. There were also power plants placed on extended outages and were on maintenance shutdown.

The average generator outage capacity increased to 2,575 MW in March. As a consequence, the clearing of diesel power plants in the spot market also increased. Notably, 75.44 percent of outage capacity for March is traceable to coal power plants, resulting in a drop of generation from coal from 54.3 percent to 53.9 percent compared to the previous month.

Generation from geothermal plants also dropped to 10.5 percent from 11.4 percent while the output of natural gas plants rose to 23.5 percent, from 22.3 percent. Meanwhile, given the onset of the dry season in the country, hydro and wind plants generation decreased to 5.9 percent from 6.6 percent, and to 1.6 percent from 2.2 percent, correspondingly.