DOE won’t rule out brownouts this year
By Myrna M. Velasco – January 10, 2023, 3:47 PM
from Manila Bulletin
The Department of Energy (DOE) is trying to paint a scenario that Luzon grid will still have supply despite forecasts of strained reserves. At the same time, the agency stopped short of admitting that with just one major plant that will conk out, such incident will result in “red alert” or a scenario in the power system that could lead to service interruptions or rotational brownouts.
Energy Undersecretary Rowena Cristina Guevara said that based on the current power supply-demand outlook for 2023, Luzon grid could be distressed with 12 incidents of ‘yellow alerts’ for eight months this year; or a condition in the power system entailing insufficiency of power reserves.
“Factoring in the forced outages of 500 to 600MW for the entire year, along with the operation of existing power plants and committed power plants, the Luzon grid is projected to have zero red alert and 12 yellow alerts,” she said.
The “yellow alert” incidents plotted in the Grid Operating and Maintenance Program (GOMP) approved by the DOE are expected to occur in the months of March (week 11); April (weeks 13 and 17); May (weeks 18 to 21); June (weeks 22 and 23); September (week 35); October (week 42); and November (week 47).
The DOE official qualified that in the projections, there is no “red alert” being seen yet, although the forced outages of plants integrated into the GOMP only accounted for 500 to 600 megawatts – which is way too low compared to actual incidents of unplanned shutdowns of power plants through the years that have been hitting as high as 2,000 to 3,500MW, especially during the critical months of summer.
When asked by the media if plant outages could worsen Luzon grid’s condition into red alerts and prospectively trigger rotational brownouts, Guevara responded, “yes, but we’re hoping we don’t have outages.”
She further indicated that with just one large plant that would fail suddenly, the grid will already be hammered into a “red alert” state. Currently, the biggest generating unit in the Luzon grid is 668MW, which is the capacity of one unit of the Dinginin coal-fired power plant.
Guevara similarly affirmed that the “yellow alert incidents” in the grid, as well as the planned shift to diesel-fired generation, will precipitate hike in power rates. In turn, such tariff spikes will be reflected as increases in the electric bills of Filipino consumers.
She noted “running diesel power plants is very expensive and it will mean an increase in cost per kilowatt-hour, thus, we suggest demand-side management,” or a scheme wherein end-users will embrace conservation as a lifestyle choice; and for them to deploy energy-efficient equipment and appliances through the chain of their business operations or in their homes.
For the habitually-delinquent generation companies (GenCos), it is deemed that there is no incentive for them to strive for “zero plant outages” because even the simultaneous plant shutdowns they caused in the 2013 “perfect storm” affliction in the Luzon grid will now have to be compensated with cost recoveries, as sanctioned by a court ruling.
