Cebu demand to outpace supply in next 3 to 4 years—AboitizPower

By Alena Mae S. Flores – June 19, 2024, 7:55 pm
from manilastandard.net

Aboitiz Power Corp. on Wednesday warned that in the absence of new power plants built in Cebu, demand would outpace supply which could lead to outages in the next three to four years.

“Should there be no new power plants built in the next three to four years, Cebu’s power demand will outpace the available supply,” Aboitiz Power Corp. Thermal Business Group chief operating officer Ronaldo Ramos said.

Ramos addressed the intricate challenges of Cebu’s energy landscape, particularly on how to increase power supply to meet growing demand in Visayas in an equitable and sustainable manner during the “Good Design, Good Business Summit” led by the Cebu Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Ramos said Cebu accounts for a substantial portion of electricity demand in the Visayas.

He said adequate power supply is a critical precondition for economic growth in the province, the Visayas and the rest of the country.

“Cebu province alone bears half of the region’s total demand, with Metro Cebu accounting for over half of the province-wide requirement. This is projected to increase by approximately 7 percent annually,” the AboitizPower executive said.

The surge in demand underscores the urgent need for energy security, especially if Central Visayas is to sustain the kind of economic expansion it had last year at 7.3 percent — the fastest in the country.

Visayas recently suffered power supply shortages with red and yellow alert raised.  Peak demand soared to over 2,500 megawatts (MW) in April — an all-time high — surpassing the available capacity of 2,200 MW.

The three to four outages weekly, lasting one to two hours each resulted in an estimated P500 million in monthly economic losses, severely affecting large industries, small businesses, and households.

Cebu is energy-dependent on neighboring islands, importing about 60 percent of its electricity needs.

AboitizPower is looking to add a new unit to its Therma Visayas (TVI) coal-fired power plant in Toledo, Cebu, injecting 150-MW into the grid to help address this vulnerability.

“The TVI Unit 3 emerged as AboitizPower’s most viable contribution to provide reliable, cost-efficient, and accessible power supply to Visayas,” Ramos said.

Ramos said baseload power plants like TVI are critical especially with the influx of variable renewable energy adding more intermittency to the grid.

This can be observed in duck curves, which are graphical representations of generated grid stability in solar power generation. When the sun rises, more capacity is available to meet demand, but as the sun sets, the energy supply drops.

“In places with significant solar penetration like Australia, they are experiencing the duck curve phenomenon,” he said.

“While not as pronounced, we experience something similar with Negros, which has the most solar generation capacity in Visayas. Negros exports its power to the rest of the islands during peak hours, but that capacity drops in the evening. Hence, the need for a balanced approach and complementing renewable energy with reliable baseload,” Ramos said.

Ramos cautioned against a “RE-at-all-costs approach,” advocating instead for pragmatic solutions that facilitate a well-managed and just transition.

This involves not only expanding renewable capacity but also investing in grid infrastructure; exploring decentralized energy solutions and smart technologies; and maintaining reliable baseload power.

“We [also] need to ensure that as we grow our energy capacity, we’re also making it more accessible and affordable for all sectors of society,” he said.

Ramos said there is a need for a balanced strategy in addressing the energy trilemma.