More power plant delays to further strain Luzon’s summer supply

“Hope for the best, prepare for the worst” said Energy Secretary Raphael P.M. Lotilla against the backdrop of threatening power service interruptions due to insufficient power supply and oil price spikes that will be reflected in the electric bills of consumers during the summer months.

With more power plants getting delayed in their commercial operations date (COD), a new outlook presented by the Department of Energy (DOE) to industry stakeholders showed further strain on supply during the summer months that in turn may trigger rotational blackouts, especially if forced outages of power plants will recur.

As could be gleaned from data, the “yellow alert” projections of the DOE had already been increased from 12 prospective incidents initially forecasted in December last year.

The updated power supply-demand outlook of the DOE has plotted at least 15 instances of yellow alerts (insufficiency of power reserves) from March to November, including the weeks on when the International Basketball Federation (FIBA) will hold its World Cup in the country on August 25-September 10 this year.

A week prior to the Barangay and Sangguniang Kabataan (SK) elections on October 30 this year, there is also a projection of yellow alert, although on the polling day itself, power situation is seen to be at its “normal” state.

Apart from the 300MW units 1 and 2 of the Mariveles coal plant in Bataan, of which operations date had already been moved to August-September this year, the other delayed plants in Luzon include the: 4.0MW Colasi hydro plant in Camarines Norte and the 8.66MW Matuno hydro facility in Nueva Vizcaya (both slightly moved from March to April); as well as the 1.4MW Labayat hydro plant in Quezon; and the 0.6MW Mariveles hydropower project in Bataan (both with deferred operations to May from March 2023); and another is the 1.6MW Laguio hydro plant in Quezon which has been moved to August from its original March schedule.

The other facilities with delayed COD would be the two-phased Concepcion battery energy storage system (BESS) in Tarlac that have aggregate capacity of 50MW, which is also being depended upon for capacity shoring up in the country’s biggest power grid.

It is also apparent in the revised forecast of the DOE that Visayas will already have its own share of at least five “yellow alert conditions” seen happening within October, November and December.

The delayed plants in the Visayas grid include the: 5.1MW Igbulo hydropower project in Iloilo; and the two-phased BESS venture of Universal Power Solutions Inc. in Ormoc, Leyte that will have 40MW capacity.

For Mindanao grid, projections remain that it will not be tormented with tight supply predicaments or yellow alert, but at least three hydropower projects also suffered delays – primarily the 3.0MW Alamada; 24.9MW Lake Mainit; and 2.04MW Maramag hydro plants.

As monitored by the energy department, the cause of delays had been: deferred completion of transmission lines for the wheeling of the plant capacities; stretched timeline on test runs and issuance of certificates of compliance (COC) by the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC); delays in procurements of equipment; as well as the factors related to impact of the lingering coronavirus pandemic.

The critical transmission projects that already skidded on their completion timelines are the: 500-kilovolt (kV) Balsik (Hermosa)-San Jose facility (delayed from June 2019 to March 2023); the 230kV Cebu-Negros-Panay interconnection (moved from March 2022 to June 2023); and the Mindanao-Visayas Interconnection Project (from January 2021 to middle of this year).

Among the measures being pursued by the DOE are to suspend all preventive maintenance schedules during the Barangay and SK elections; guarantee that no forced outages of power plants will ensue; ensure maximum reservoir level for the hydro power plants; and it has also designated the 350MW unit 2 of the Malaya thermal plant as a must-run unit (MRU) when supply would reach critical levels.

Additionally, there is that standing proposal to reduce demand by enforcing four-day work week, primarily at government offices; or for both the State and the private sector to continually implement work-from-home arrangements.